Oil stays expensive, but petrol is getting cheaper: how can that be?

First the numbers. On 5 November, Euro95 in the Netherlands cost on average 23 cents a litre less than on 12 October, according to Grenshopper price data from about 20,000 stations. Almost every Dutch station joined in: 99.8 percent went down. In Belgium, Euro95 fell by almost 17 cents, in Germany E10 by 12.

Oil, meanwhile, calmly did the opposite. A barrel of crude became 13.6 percent more expensive in October, reaching almost $118. Only on 4 November did the oil price drop below $95. Still more than $20 above its level before the war with Iran.

You do not fill up with oil

At the pump you pay for petrol, which has its own price on the wholesale market. There, petrol became 9.5 cents a litre cheaper in October while oil became 8.8 cents more expensive. Not our guess: it comes from the Bundeskartellamt, Germany's fuel price watchdog. Refineries now earn far less on petrol. Their loss, your gain.

Diesel is the expensive sibling

Because of the war, far less fuel comes from the Gulf, and Russia supplies far less diesel. Refineries are running flat out, which also produces petrol, just as demand for petrol drops after the summer. So petrol is plentiful, diesel is not.

Dutch diesel fell only 7.5 cents since 12 October, mostly in the last few days. On 5 November, diesel cost almost 19 cents a litre more than Euro95, against 3 cents in mid October. Diesel has been the pricier fuel since September.

Enjoy it while it lasts

The party could end soon. Refineries earn little on petrol, and Kpler analysts expect them to make less, also in the Netherlands. Then prices rise again. Taxes loom too: Dutch parliament votes on 12 November on the excise discount. Without an extension, petrol becomes more than 22 cents a litre more expensive on 1 January.

If The Hague won't do it, we will

If The Hague won't make filling up cheaper, we'll help you. The station matters more than you think. On 5 November, the cheapest tenth of Dutch stations were at least 19 cents a litre cheaper than the most expensive tenth. On a tank of 50 litres, that is almost ten euros. And in Belgium, Euro95 was even more than 41 cents cheaper on average. Grenshopper works out for every trip where filling up costs you the least, detour included. So don't leave that tenner on the table.